Pork price is expected to break the high point of the year in August CPI

The soaring price of pork has a huge impact on domestic CPI. Some industry insiders believe that CPI is expected to exceed the high point in the year in August.

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the average price of major foods in 50 cities from August 21st to 30th. The data showed that the fluctuation of pork prices has slowed down, and the chain-wide increase of pork has dropped to 0.5%. However, despite the fact that some people in the industry believe that the price of pork has continued to rise in five consecutive months in August, and once the RMB has depreciated sharply, it is expected that the CPI will exceed the annual high point in August.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, said in an interview that there is not much room left for the current rise in pork prices. “In recent years, pork prices have continued to rise in May-August in the first half of the year and gradually slowed down from September to December in the second half of the year. This is related to the amount of pigs slaughtered. Most of the live pigs produced in midsummer are born in winter and have low survival. With less slaughter, the price will go up, and live pigs listed in August and September are generally born in March and April, the weather is warmer in this period, the survival rate of piglets is high, the amount of slaughter is high, and the price will be stable. This phenomenon is known as the pork price upside down in the season."

Feng Yonghui also stated that at present, pork prices are still in the first half of the cyclical increase in pork prices. In the second half of the year, pork prices will remain high for a long period of time. It is expected that after the fall of next year, there will be a turning point in sow stocks and pork prices will enter a cyclical pattern. Fall period.

For a long time, China's hog breeding has always been in the cycle of “pigs hurt farmers and meat is expensive and hurt people”. This phenomenon has caused the pig industry to become a high-risk and low-income industry. "The 'pig cycle' has always existed in the domestic pig breeding industry, but the rate of change in each cycle will be quite different. The reason for the fluctuation of pork prices in recent years is the instability of the breeding groups, mainly the instability of the breeding households. "Feng Yonghui introduced that retail investors are more affected by the market, and once the market suffers, the group will be greatly reduced. Although group breeding has been expanding, in most cases such an increase or decrease will not match, and there will be no planned production. Lead to violent fluctuations in pork prices.

Pork price has always been an important symbol of China's price, and its changes often affect the final trend of CPI. Prior to this, domestic pork prices have risen for four consecutive months, once pulling the nation’s overall consumer price index in July rose by 1.6% year-on-year. The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the August CPI data this week. Some industry insiders believe that although the increase has slowed down, pork prices have continued to rise in five consecutive months. It is expected that the August CPI will exceed the annual high point.