Release date: 2014-06-19 The pharmaceutical sector, which is known for its high growth and high defensiveness, has slowed significantly in the second half of last year, both in terms of performance and stock price. In the eyes of industry analysts, this is the beginning of differentiation in the pharmaceutical industry. Zhou Rui, the best analyst in the pharmaceutical industry and the chief analyst of Haitong Securities Pharmaceutical Industry, said on Saturday morning that the future of the sector will be greatly differentiated due to growth expectations. In the investment direction, the medical service segment will In the next three to five years, it will be stronger than the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector, and innovation and mergers and acquisitions will also help boost the high growth expectations of individual stocks. Industry differentiation “In the past six months, the growth rate of high-growth companies in the pharmaceutical industry is declining, and the valuation of pharmaceutical stocks that have been defensively claimed has been going down.†Zhou Rui said in the review of the trend of the best analysts on the first financial conference, 2009 At the peak of the explosive growth of the pharmaceutical industry in the year, 60% of the company's profit growth in the industry reached about 30%; the proportion of industry companies that still maintain this growth rate has been reduced to 25%. Affected by factors such as the overall correction of the sector since the second half of last year, lower-than-expected first-quarter results, price reduction of Chinese patent medicines, and delays in bidding, the once-influenced pharmaceutical sector is now overcast. The Shenyin Wanguo First Class Industry Index showed that the pharmaceutical industry sector continued to fall in March and April this year, reaching 4.4% and 3.08% respectively. The first financial analyst, the second in the pharmaceutical industry, and the research report of the Industrial Securities Research Group, showed that in the first two months of this year, the pharmaceutical manufacturing sales revenue increased by 13.46%, and the total profit increased by 15.00%. Zhou Rui said that the pharmaceutical industry has entered a period of steady growth at the end of 2013. This is behind the slowdown in the growth of government procurement funds, and is also an inevitable trend in the development of the industry, but accurately enters the segment and pursues high growth. The company is still able to find a steady growth in the pharmaceutical sector for three to five years. Innovation is regarded by Zhou Rui as a springboard for pharmaceutical companies. The industrial production status of safety-ineffective generic drugs will be broken. Innovation has become the development direction of the pharmaceutical industry and has been effective for listed companies. Outreach mergers and acquisitions have also been listed as the main line of industry investment during the year by a number of brokers. Zhou Rui said that when the company relies on endogenous growth to support the growth rate, the extension demand is further highlighted. Although the success rate is still difficult to guarantee, the scale of the enterprise through mergers and acquisitions is still the development path that can be explored in the next three to five years. one. "For the pharmaceutical sector, what is more important now is growth rather than defensiveness." Zhou Rui told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that the difference in growth expectations will gradually divide the sector, and low-growth companies are underestimated for a long time. Value-and-loss high-growth companies are gaining a hundredfold valuation during the R&D phase and are likely to coexist in the future. Hotspot rotation The pharmaceutical industry in the valuation adjustment phase was not calm in the first half of the year, and was frequently switched by hotspots due to policy influences. In April, the Development and Reform Commission, the Health Planning Commission, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly issued the “Notice on Issues Concerning the Implementation of Market Regulation Price for Medical Services of Non-Public Medical Institutionsâ€. The notice stressed that it is necessary to further promote the independent pricing policy for medical service prices and encourage diversification. Run a doctor. On June 1st, the newly revised Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Medical Devices was officially implemented. Compared with the old regulations, supervision relaxation, encouragement of innovation and software requirements were emphasized. Low-cost drug-related policies that have received much attention from the market have also recently landed. In May of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the Price Management of Low-Price Drugs", notifying the improvement of the price management method of low-priced drugs, determining the daily average cost standard for low-priced drugs, and establishing the entry and exit mechanisms for low-priced drugs. A breakthrough was made in strengthening supervision over market price behavior. The debate over the impact of policy has not stopped. Taking the introduction of the low-cost drug policy as an example, the second best financial analyst, the National Financial Securities Pharmaceutical Industry Research Group said in the report that the policy will benefit the industry, but the effect still depends on more supporting policies. And cooperation with various departments. Zhou Rui said bluntly that the low-priced drug list itself does not conform to the logic of drug consumption in the past; even if the price is raised, the low-priced drug is still in the low price category, and there is a possibility of losing the market, and will not bring actual performance contribution. As for the secondary market volatility caused by hotspots in the first half of the year, Zhou Rui told reporters that it is still the short-term behavior of funds; relying on outdated mergers and acquisitions and gene sequencing and other current hot new technology and new products triggered by the market cycle It will be very long, and the current fundamentals of the industry and the company have not changed. Zhou Rui also said that due to the market's expectation of the price reduction of Chinese patent medicines and the introduction of low-cost medicine policies in the first half of the year, future policy implementation will not bring greater fluctuations to the market. “For the sector, what's more important is new things, including whether the industry data has improved, and whether there are new policies. For now, we should pay more attention to future new bidding expectations, including medical insurance catalogs, instead of paying attention to the old ones. The policy is grounded." Source: First Financial Daily
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